Fear of stage 4 in the Covid-19 process, International tensions And Effects on International Trade - InTraders Alerts
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Fear of stage 4 in the Covid-19 process, International tensions And Effects on International Trade

The virus, which was stated to originate from China in November 2019, but is also said to be travelling around the world in the first half of 2019, is storming. It has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The Trade Wars, which had flared up between America and China before, extinguished the flames of dealing with the virus scourge within the countries themselves during this period. Fear of famine and death gripped the nations of the world. Among these nations, there were no people at the top of the hierarchy and the richest in the world.

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Borders were closed, imports and exports stopped, production was interrupted, fields could not be planted, planted lands could not be harvested because there were no people to work. After the first and second stage, the third stage was passed, and the fourth stage’s fear gripped humanity.

The vaccines produced were started to be used in humans before the third phase of research was completed. BioNTech was very effective but also had side effects, Sinovac was less effective and had fewer side effects. While vaccination continues in the world, the first mutated variant of the virus was seen in England. The Delta variant, which emerged in India, began to spread rapidly. Another mutated virus began to take lives in Russia. In the meantime, citizens of different countries crossed the borders to take their summer holidays and to get away from the stress caused by the virus and opened the tourism season. Even people who had received two doses of the vaccine were affected by these variants. Every day, people who were adversely affected by the vaccine were mentioned on TV channels and social media news.

The number of people who died from this virus, which quickly became a mutant and transformed into different variants, started to increase. This scared people. I wonder what negativities a new stage would bring!

The fear caused by the pandemic, the delays in the export processes, while creating rapprochement between the countries, also created negativities. Countries that can have the vaccine and those who can supply it with delayed or underdeveloped countries that have never received a vaccine or have not reached it…

While this period is being lived in this way; Saying that the new president of America will have good relations with Russia, but using England; After the warships of the British navy sailed in the Black Sea off the coast of Ukraine, the warnings of Russian warplanes and ships warmed the Black Sea. The British warship anchored in front of Sarayburnu in Istanbul, the US set up a base on Greek territory and aimed its weapons at Turkey, and Greece provoked Turkey; The joint exercises by the USA, Greece, Israel and Serbia, and the sale of fighter jets by France and the USA to Greece are warming the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. in the Middle East; Russia and America are creating tension on the Turkey-Syria border. The United States provides military ammunition support to groups Turkey has declared as terrorists. Israel continues to attack and abuse Palestine. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain hot. China’s signing of a Free Trade Agreement between Asian countries, Turkey’s aspiration to protect the Afghan Airport after the United States said it would withdraw from Afghanistan…

All of the above are strange events in the pandemic environment. Besides these; As a result of the Global Climate Crisis showing itself well, many countries of the world have entered the summer season; Hail storms, heavy rains, erupting Volcanoes, forest fires, floods, drought, landslides, the birth of a new ocean, fires on the seabed and many other adverse natural events were also experienced. Do you think mother nature was asking for an account?

Will the fourth stage cause a new crisis? Will borders and doors close again? While the virus, created by man and released to the world, is planned to cause the loss of five million lives, will the number increase even more (https://www.worldometers.info/)?

While all this was going on, a container crisis began to occur in the world, which caused problems in maritime transportation and increased freight prices by up to 500%. When you place your order to a manufacturer in China, the cost, which was 2500 USD, first increased to 9000 until the time the cargo was loaded on the ship, and today it increased to 13000-15000 USD in return for final registration. In this case, although raw material prices are higher than in China, imports from the European Region started due to freight prices. China was unable to export and began to delay orders. Due to this crisis, China announced that it started to produce containers, but this was not a solution either. The new variants that emerged by mutating negatively affected the studies. This was not the only reason; containers were waiting in the wrong spots and could not exit. In addition, the collective purchase agreements made by some forwarder companies did not allow this crisis to be overcome. And apart from these; The sudden revival of orders from furniture to food, from automobile parts to hair dye, the explosion of demand, the inability of containers to meet this demand, the inability of a ship to return on time due to the epidemic, the Suez Canal crisis in March and the changing strategies of the companies afterwards also affected this situation.

It was in Turkey’s interest that Europe could not supply its needs arising from the opening of Europe and the abolition of restrictions from China. Loads of orders from the European region caused congestion on the highway from Turkey to this region. Due to this intensity, freight charges in road transport increased by 200-300%. China was integrating land and sea transportation by using the ports it held. Some US ports were breaking handling records in the first quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Containers from China were stuck in the West due to the pandemic. Firms once again understood the importance of keeping stock and the demands exploded. If China could find a solution to the container crisis, it could take the lead in the Trade Wars, but it was difficult. Although the Trade Wars seem to exist for some reason, the country to which China exported most effectively was the United States.

Turkey has noticed the wealth of African countries with which it has been in contact for the last two years and accelerated its exports to African countries. Acceleration was achieved with the efforts of the private sector. Although there were serious increases in prices by gaining value in commodities in the world, the increase was replaced by a decrease bypassing like the wind. Coin markets were revived thanks to serious buyers, and only about ten thousand coin sites were established in Turkey. The coins, which reached their peak in April 2021, have gained calm these days. China had begun to shut down coin sites, and it was stated that the market would move to America.

Those who were vigilant and had money filled their coffers. The poor became poorer again, and the rich richer. A rich person would come out and say a word the next day, while some were gaining more, others were losing. This is how the law of nature worked!

Well! What about the fourth stage?

The European region closed its doors to the UK due to the variant. Would Britain, have come out of Brexit, face famine?

While the pandemic continued to kill people, the world economy was on its way to the brink of the crisis. People are now overwhelmed, bored and fed up with being locked in their homes and wearing masks. With the start of the vaccination process, the abrupt lifting of the restrictions caused complacency in people. People didn’t even care that different variants appeared, that the contagion was faster. Summer season, sea and sun…

See you guys like September – October.

The radical and negative changes that have begun in social behaviour will continue, the economic crisis will enlarge and enslave the world economy, cultures will be pregnant with negative developments, and eventually the “Alpha Generation” will go down in history as the lost generation, that is, the “Zero Generation”.

New restrictions and an increase in deaths will bring the fourth stage, but it will be neither the beginning nor the end. I mean, “nothing will be the same as before”. The digitalized world will now keep up with the Digital Age. With the intensive use of artificial intelligence, the work of human beings will become easier, while many professions will become history, new professions will be born. We hope; Robots will be under the command of human beings, or how sad will the condition of human beings be!

With love.

Gürkan KAVRAZLI

Strategy & Operations Director / COO

http://www.intraders.org
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