Seeing America’s 48-hour deadline—perhaps a bluff, perhaps a challenge—Iran responded with a counter-offer, warning the countries it has attacked and declared enemies in the region: “Charge your phones, stock up on water, because we are going to strike.”
The Middle East is a region frequently in the global spotlight for its oil reserves and geopolitical tensions. Yet, amidst ongoing conflicts, an even more critical and life-sustaining resource—water—faces significant risk. In this arid region, millions of people rely heavily on desalination plants to supply potable water. In a war scenario, the destruction or disruption of these facilities could lead to an immediate humanitarian crisis with consequences that could extend far beyond national borders.
Desalination Plants Under Threat
During conflicts in the Middle East, infrastructure can be targeted, either intentionally or inadvertently. Damage to salt processing plants along the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Gulf of Oman could have a chain reaction:
- Rapid Water Shortages: Many cities rely almost entirely on desalinated water. Loss of operational capacity could result in severe water shortages within 24–72 hours, leaving millions without access to drinking water.
- Humanitarian Crises: Hospitals, sanitation systems, and food production depend on water. A sudden disruption could paralyse urban life, putting public health at immediate risk.
- Mass Migration: With water scarcity, populations may be forced to move towards areas where water is already available. This could create regional “water refugees/migrants”. It could also worsen existing refugee crises in neighbouring countries, including parts of Turkey and Europe.
- Industrial and Energy Impacts: Desalinated water is also critical for cooling and process water in energy and industrial sectors. A compromised plant could disrupt oil refineries, power stations, and industrial production, compounding the crisis.
Cities Most Vulnerable to Water Shortages
Some major cities in the region are particularly dependent on desalination plants. In the event of plant failures, the following cities could experience critical water shortages within 24 hours:
- Kuwait City, Kuwait – Almost all of its drinking water comes from desalination plants.
- Dubai, UAE – 95% of its water comes from desalination plants, primarily from the Jebel Ali Plant.
- Abu Dhabi, UAE – Heavily dependent on Ruwais and other plants.
- Doha, Qatar – 99% of its drinking water comes from desalination plants.
- Manama, Bahrain – An island nation with virtually no natural freshwater sources.
- Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – Reliant on onshore desalination plants, especially during periods of high demand.
- Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Water is supplied from the Ras Al-Khair Plant via long-distance pipelines offshore.
These cities represent the most urgently threatened population centres in the region. Any prolonged disruption could plunge them into a full-blown water crisis within days.
Six Mega Desalination Plants Controlling Middle Eastern Water
The region’s water security relies on a few large-scale desalination plants. Their strategic importance cannot be overstated:
- Ras Al-Khair, Saudi Arabia – The world’s largest combined thermal and reverse osmosis plant, producing over 1,025,000 m³/day for Riyadh and Eastern Province cities.
- Jebel Ali, Dubai, UAE – Supplies nearly all of Dubai’s potable water, producing 300–400,000 m³/day.
- Hidd, Manama, Bahrain – Produces 265,000 m³/day, supplying the island nation’s capital.
- Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, UAE – The second largest in Abu Dhabi, producing ~200,000 m³/day.
- Shuaiba, Kuwait City, Kuwait – Provides over 50% of Kuwait City’s potable water, 210,000 m³/day.
- Ashkelon, Tel Aviv, Israel – Produces 330,000 m³/day, accounting for 15–20% of national water consumption.
If these facilities are targeted or incapacitated, the consequences would extend beyond individual cities, potentially destabilising entire regions and even affecting neighbouring countries.
Strategic Implications in the Context of War
Unlike oil, water cannot be stockpiled on a massive scale. Desalinated water is immediately vital for life, industry, and energy production. In the ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, the vulnerability of desalination plants introduces a new dimension:
- Control over water supply becomes a strategic military objective.
- Populations living in cities may face sudden survival crises, which can affect migration, politics, and regional stability.
- Even temporary outages can trigger economic and industrial collapse, compounding the humanitarian impact.
Essentially, in the Middle East, water security is inseparable from national security. These mega desalination plants—Ras Al-Khair, Jebel Ali, Hidd, Ruwais, Shuaiba, and Ashkelon—serve not only as infrastructure but as lifelines for millions. The ability to safeguard them could determine the survival of cities and the stability of nations.
Conclusion
In a war-torn region like the Middle East, the risks extend beyond energy and oil. Water, especially desalinated water, is essential to millions. Ongoing conflicts put both water resources and water-dependent populations at extreme risk. Understanding which cities and facilities are most vulnerable helps policymakers, humanitarian organisations, and the public anticipate crises and plan mitigation strategies.
As history has shown, future conflicts may hinge not only on hydrocarbons but increasingly on control of water—the most essential resource for life.
Gürkan KAVRAZLI
Logistics Expert & Entegrator
Educator I Speaker I Author
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Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO – AQUASTAT)
World Resources Institute (WRI – Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas)
Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC)
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority
Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation
Israel Desalination Program
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Stockholm International Water Institute
Middle East Institute
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