International Trade in the Shadow of Disasters! - InTraders Alerts
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International Trade in the Shadow of Disasters!

The Covid19 virus started in the last quarter of 2019 and it has been more than a year. The doors were closed for humans for a while, life stopped and other living things breathed a sigh of relief. He took a break from the world, breathed and cleaned.

The good news of “vaccine found” came from different countries. The transportation, distribution and storage process, production time and amount of the vaccine to be produced were discussed. Ultimately, vaccination started in the countries that first placed the money and the order. Developing countries have been involved in the vaccination process by placing an order, albeit late. In underdeveloped countries, vaccination is still “zero”. The World Health Organization (WHO) said that European giant countries should not stockpile and that vaccines should be sent to countries where vaccination has not yet started. But who listened!

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Over time, the virus mutated and formed variants. The new variant was called “Delta”. In England, India and China, this variant was seen in many countries. The European Region has announced that it is closing its doors to the UK, which has come out of Brexit. Especially in European and Middle Eastern countries, different measures have been announced. With the arrival of summer and the opening of the tourism season, we can predict that the Delta Variant will spread faster and be seen in many countries and there will be an increase in the number of cases. Delta Plus, which is on the agenda as a top variant of Delta, supports this prediction. Due to the sudden increase in internet orders in countries where the restrictions were lifted and the opening, there was a concentration in e-commerce. In international trade, where the container crisis is already experienced, the crisis increased even more due to the Delta Variant and freight prices took flight in the Road and Sea sections, which are the most important pillars of international transportation.

While the big ones in trade could import, the smaller ones suffered serious injuries. Variants have started to be seen even in countries where no cases have been seen through containers transported to importing countries. Because, thanks to international trade, this variant went to travel the world. Especially in Turkey; The displacement of seasonal workers working in agriculture regionally, the fact that refugees/asylum seekers were not vaccinated, the uncontrolled entry of Afghan refugees to this country and their spread throughout the country, and the fact that some refugees could reach Europe, should have been the harbingers of a much greater danger. This epidemic caused by the virus thought to be created by human hands was expected to cause more deaths than the epidemic a century ago. It has been announced that the Delta Variant affects even those who have received two or even three doses of the vaccine, but the vaccines eliminate the possibility of death. Well; It doesn’t kill, but it suffocates. Although we say “vaccine”, there is still no approved vaccine. That’s why there are so many people against the vaccine and they are protesting. What? Injecting themselves with unapproved and unproven fluids. Using people as “subjects”.

We are taking firm steps towards the last quarter of 2021; neither the virus leaves us, nor we it. The mutant virus has taken over the world. As we try to get rid of Covid19, we are now fighting the mutant virus. I wrote that people face their stage 3 fear. Today there are 4th or even 5th stage expectations and fears. The hopelessness spreading with the pandemic and increasing day by day aroused a sense of doom among believers and fueled this feeling more and more every day. This situation also affected the prophecy tendencies. It was reflected in the contents of the prophecies, and the final prophecies promised the world more epidemics and natural disasters.

While trying to get rid of this epidemic; July 2021 witnessed other disasters. Disasters did not leave the world and humanity behind. The floods that started in Turkey in the Middle East also started in the European Region and continued in Asia. After the floods, landslides started. Just when we said we were saved, the world turned into a fireball. The globalizing climate crisis, which mankind had slowly but surely destroyed by its own hands, was manifesting itself. The equatorial belt burned from beginning to end, from north to south. The dimensions of these fires threatened all living things on and under the ground. We humans knew this day would come, but I guess we didn’t expect it so soon. However, it was stated that starting from 2020, it will be the “Year of Disasters” for 10 years. The actions to be taken until 2030 were gathered under the name of “Global Goals 2030”. A few months ago, a report on the major climate summit known as “COP26” was published in Glasgow as the largest review of Climate Change Science ( https://bit.ly/ipcc_AR6 ). It was stated that this report, published after the summit, was a “red alert” for humanity ( https://ukcop26.org/ ).

It is stated that by 2030, the weather will be 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer. China surpasses other countries in carbon emissions. Carbon emissions are increasing in this country. Experts agree that China will not be successful in the fight against climate change. The President of China, on the other hand, said the opposite, stating that his country aims to reduce its carbon emissions to zero by 2060.

A budget of 33 billion dollars has been planned for the 8000 km “The Great Green Wall” project, which started in 2007 and is planned to be completed by 2030, bringing together 20 countries. 18% of the project has been completed. It will circle the continent from west to east in the “Sahel” region, which is under the Sahara desert. It has already provided millions of people with jobs in the land where they were born. With this project, the fate of the region will change. This project means stopping the climate crisis in this region, reviving the ecosystem and agriculture, and bringing the people and living things that were left to death back to life ( https://www.greatgreenwall.org/about-great-green-wall ).

The fires that started in the forests caused great damage to the agricultural lands. Like humans, other creatures have lost their homes. The drought brought on by the Global Climate Crisis, on top of these fires, threatened many countries, people of the country and even the region, and brought an intercontinental crisis on Earth. Because of these fires, bee colonies were destroyed. The extinction of bees, which is very important for the balance of nature, means the extinction of the human race. There would be shortages of raw materials, production would be hit, production in agriculture would be limited in countries struggling with drought, problems in imports and exports would increase, and people would face water and food problems, especially in underdeveloped countries. No country will be able to say “what’s wrong with me, it’s none of my business”. Because everyone would be and would have to be responsible for both their own country and the actions of their neighbouring country. The extinction wasn’t just on land. The ecosystem began to change in the water and the oceans, and the living population began to disappear along with the change. In some countries, when the hunting season is about to enter, a hunting ban is tried to be imposed by the relevant official institutions.

Despite the increase in oil prices, the richest people, who did not increase in oil production and planned to earn more in a short time, were trying to become even richer.

Alright! It is necessary to ask these rich people; Where will you take all this property?

Making money the easy way has now become an art and a virtue. To keep the economy damaged by the pandemic alive, the money that was printed and distributed with different methods was started to be used in the coin market to earn more easily. To prevent this, China has decided to close coin businesses in the country. They began to move from China to America, which they saw as a safe haven.

“It is necessary to think about preventive and protective measures before disaster strikes, it is useless to lament after it comes.” Mustafa Kemal Atatürk

With the removal of restrictions in many countries in the European Region, orders placed by people who were locked in their homes from e-commerce sites created an import density. The countries where these orders were placed intensively were China and Turkey. There was a struggle between the two countries to become the export leader. The Delta Variant, which started to shake both countries, seemed to create a shortage of raw materials. The country, which could overcome this crisis, would become the leader in both e-commerce and exports by meeting the early Christmas orders. The problems were not just the supply of raw materials. There was also the container crisis. The container crisis seemed to shake China more than Turkey because Turkey could reach Europe faster by road transport.

There were also problems in front of Turkey. Chief among these problems was the driver and visa crisis. Turkish companies that could find vehicles could not find drivers. Since it is not a member of the European Union; The driver could not extend the visa or experience delays, and he could not get a visa for the driver he found. Turkey, which has started to run out of transit documents, which it has provided in limited quantities; He had a pass document problem at the Greek and Bulgarian gates on the western borders and also at the Azerbaijan exits on the eastern border, and he had to pay an additional fee for each vehicle. This situation disturbed the private sector in transportation, causing an increase in freight costs and delays in the delivery of the cargo. The epidemic that started from China, and then the mutant virus Delta, started to affect this country again and even caused the closure of a port for this reason. The weakening of trade between China and America due to the Trade Wars became even worse after the epidemic and mutant virus. For this reason, America turned its attention to Turkey in imports. America had taken its place among the top three countries in Turkey’s exports.

It seems that; In the shadow of the epidemic, until the middle of 2022, there will be a problematic and ever-increasing cost of trade in the world. The container crisis will continue for at least another year, due to both staff shortages and closures. The ever-increasing orders will continue to be experienced in macro distribution as well as the problems experienced in micro distributions. Sea transport will be operated with a definite reservation, this way of working will further increase the freight prices. That means; “He who pays will blow the whistle”.

While the letter of credit payment method is used more, the workload of the banks will increase, perhaps the density will become pregnant with the digital money method. Many companies will also prefer the cash payment method. The frequency of use of Intermodal and Multimodal methods in transportation will increase.

Air transport, which worked intensively before the epidemic, caused many planes and, of course, the personnel of these planes to sleep and even become unemployed. After the restrictions were lifted with the arrival of the summer season in many countries in the world, the maintenance costs of the airline companies that would operate their aircraft – for their inbound aircraft – increased for this reason. The damage was great due to the non-rotating propeller and the aircraft that did not take off. Many people recalled to work were unable to return as quickly as companies closed their shutters. Many businesses in ground handling services at airports and in these areas had closed due to the absence of passengers. Airline companies, which had to face the loss by staying open during the epidemic period, or continue to work by surviving in some way, were now working at a busy pace.

In railway transportation; By turning the crisis into an opportunity, Turkey started to use the Middle Corridor towards both Europe and China. B2B trade was launched in the direction of Europe to Poland and to Canbaz in the direction of China. Trying to convert this trade to B2C. Railways in Turkey are in the hands and control of the State. Opening the way for privatization can provide important developments. Allowing a single company in this transportation method will cause a monopoly. Ensuring standards within the scope of the European Transport Network Project, opening the desired railway in the Europe-Anatolia crossing means that this transportation method is used more. In this case, a significant reduction and control in carbon emissions will be achieved.

In developing countries, the epidemic has caused many small businesses to close or merge. It has led to the signing of Free Trade Agreements between countries in the world, reaching different countries on different continents, and changing and increasing needs.

The global climate crisis, which started long before, put a stop to the increasing consumption frenzy of mankind with the epidemic. The rich got richer, while the poor either stayed the same or got poorer. While the rich continued to consume and waste, the poor began to realize the value of what they had, to protect it, and to avoid waste and tighten the belt a little more. There are still unvaccinated people in underdeveloped countries. Apart from such countries, developed countries continue to rapidly vaccinate their own people by accelerating purchases from vaccine manufacturers. Due to the limited number of manufacturers, vaccines produced in limited numbers are unfortunately sent to these countries. However, there was a point that could not be understood and that the developed countries were not aware of; Imports from countries where vaccination has not started due to international trade, and loads carried by imports could accelerate the spread of the virus or variant. Or vice versa, the virus could be transmitted to these countries due to trade, that is, export.

Didn’t many living species move around the world in this way!

Therefore, how would this epidemic be prevented? We have the example of India, which has run out of oxygen and therefore has an increase in deaths. We do not know what is happening and is happening in North Korea, which is closed to the outside. Each country may be making different numbers of notifications. In addition, WHO detected fake vaccines in India and Africa. Schools are starting. Quarantines will begin and seem to increase.

Nothing is guaranteed. The future is being rebuilt.

Wars, famines, deaths, slaughtered animals… A burning world, a blood-spitting nature… We humans just watching.

“I think the end of the world will come amid rising applause from those who thought it was all a joke.” Moliere

08.20.2021 https://covid19.who.int/                                                          
( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1? )

Gürkan KAVRAZLI

Loji TV / COO

LogiRED / Strategy&Operations Director

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